Thursday, August 21, 2008

oil travels faster than light

Now as far as I remember I have explained in one of last few blogs how oil market is one of the MOST volatile markets.The speed with which it fluctuates beats our sounds of sigh(Hence,its faster than sound) and fluctuates faster than we can see(Which preposterously I can say is faster than we can see and hence faster than light)
Oil oil oill...that is all what the whole world longs for..Russian attack on Georgia is a follow up where another world power is beginning to involve in a big way since there is a huge premium for that pipelines which flow around there.USA surrounding Russia with its Polish missile shield deal will only make the matters worse.A few days earlier I thought that US will forgo this proposed deal and also let NATO not make Georgia and Ukraine its members since it needs Russia's support to censure Iran(a big time enemy of Russia...though there were also reports that since Russia attacked Georgia and came close to Iran ,Iran could agree to the west's demand for ending its nuclear plants et al).
For the moment though,my perception is that Georgia and Ukraine will not get a membership in NATO for a long time(and that amounts to never)..A strong likelihood that Europe will allow Russia to take control of Georgia and Ukraine in some time..because it cant risk its gas supplies from Russia and neither can it fight for someone else and that too against Russia.
The Kremlins ie Russia will look to take control of Georgia+Ukraine and hence the Black Sea..US will not install its defense shield in Poland atleast for a couple of years since its too busy in Iraq and Afghanistan.It also has to deal with Iran and so cannot bug Russia.
Arctic Sea will become a major flash point ..but that is atleast 4-5 years away.Also western oil companies will force their way throug off-shore drilling in US(which is currently banned due to environmental issues) since they are on their way out from the big oil producing regions like Venenzuela,Iran,Russia and the like anti-US/pro-nationalist countires.
Oil prices I think will only rise..I donot think they can go below 100$ at any cost..The stakes are too high for oil producing countries to let that happen.
You can run you can hide but you cant escape Oil.

1 comment:

RPL said...

now ... build the theory of relativity on this field too